Phone model updates

The Apple media machine is now in over-drive ahead of the imminent introduction of the iPhone, but will it fulfill its promise? To paraphrase Ben Wood from consulting firm CCS, “If the chief executive of Nokia had stood up and said he was launching a phone that was big and heavy, had no keyboard, was only 2G and not available for six months, he would have been crucified”

23 Years ago, Apple transformed the PC industry with the introduction of the Macintosh, and they have did the same with the iPod in 2001, where today they are the dominant player in the MP3 device market. If they do the same in cellular phones, and grab a 1% market share of the mobile phone market as they expect, they stand to make billions.

But the mobile phone market today is very different from the MP3 market of 2001. Although the mobile phone market is at least ten times as big as the MP3 player segment, it is now a mature market. And the dominant players are not going to stand idly by while a relative upstart tries to grab a piece of the action: recently, there has already been an influx of product introductions who are competing directly in the iPhone segment, which include Nokia N95, Sony Ericsson P960, HTC Touch, LG Prada, Samsung Sprint phone...

Apple will not have an easy ride.

Still, this is a case of marketing and hype, winning over with a fairly good product. It is significant also that the iPhone is hitting the market in the US first, where 3G is not an issue, and where Apple has a tremendous existing following.

Those of you in the US will see the iPhone selling exclusively on the AT & T network. It is highly likely that there will be an after-market to sell these iPhones unlocked, and ready to go on to other networks, in the US itself, and to a lesser extent the export market. The real test of the product superiority will be just that, if we see a lot of requests for the iPhone on our trading floor, especially from the non-US market, then Apple can expect to have a real winner on its hands.

The real problem is still finding the wholesalers for the Apple's new toy...

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